Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

616
FXUS64 KHUN 062329
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Medium chances (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms this
   afternoon/evening. No severe storms expected.

 - Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms
   Saturday afternoon/evening, with a low risk of a few strong to
   severe storms. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main
   threats.

 - Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft across the TN Valley will continue to
gradually strengthen from this afternoon through the overnight
hours, as a shearing mid-level trough (initially across the Four
Corners region) ejects northeastward into the Mid-MO Valley ahead
of a stronger northern stream wave dropping out of western Canada.
Nevertheless, gradual deepening of the related surface low is
predicted to occur as it begins to accelerate northeastward from
the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This will
maintain moderately strong southerly winds in the boundary layer
across our CWFA, with current gusts around 20 MPH expected to
diminish with sunset. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
also persist for the remainder of the afternoon across a broad
region extending from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into
the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. This activity is largely
being driven by strengthening deep-layer warm/moist advection and
should largely dissipate in our region by 1-2Z with the onset of
the nocturnal cooling cycle. However, until that point, cells with
40-50 dbZ echo tops in 13-17 kft range will be capable of
producing CG lightning strikes, and with very steep lapse rates in
the 0-2 km layer a few instances of wind gusts up to 30-40 MPH
may occur as well. A few showers may linger into the early morning
hours across portions of northeast AL, with a modest increase in
the SSW low-level jet supporting a return of low stratus clouds
region-wide prior to sunrise. Overnight lows will generally be in
the l-m 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main focus in the short term period will be the threat for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. An upper
wave will pivot across the northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region and a cold front will push through the Midwest on
Saturday. While not particularly strong, there will be a
favorable overlap of shear and instability tomorrow afternoon as
a line of thunderstorms push through the area from the northwest.
SPC has added a 2% risk area for tornadoes west of I-65 where the
most favorable overlap of instability and low level helicity will
exist. Elsewhere, damaging winds and hail will be the primary
risks, especially along any bowing segments of the line/cluster
and stronger/isolated updrafts embedded within. These storms
should move into NW AL around noon and exit the area to the east
by 7-8pm. While storm total rain amounts have trended slightly
downward and the risk of flash flooding is low, PWAT values
between 1.3-1.6" will be supportive of heavier downpours that
could cause ponding of water on area roadways.

Temperatures will cool slightly Saturday night into Sunday as the
front stalls near the region. This will keep medium to high
chances for rain and storms in the forecast through Sunday as the
front interacts with the area, though we will have less
instability to work with in the wake of the convective activity on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Most guidance weakens the forcing along the front significantly
Sunday night as it pushes southwards into central or southern
Alabama. Some light scattered showers or isolated elevated
thunderstorms could continue into early Monday morning. Abundant
cloud cover and lingering southwesterly boundary layer flow will
keep overnight lows warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models develop a stronger surface low over the northern Great Plains
area into south central Canada Sunday night with a surface front
extending southwest into Kansas and Oklahoma. This front has a hard
time pushing very far southeast into the surface high over the
southeastern CONUS on Monday as the surface low moves northeast into
east central Canada. However, increasing southwesterly and southerly
flow ahead of it gradually pull the weak front over southern Alabama
northward. This will likely keep most of the area cloudy and
contending with scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm
activity through Tuesday night. The abundant cloud cover on Monday
will likely keep highs in the mid to upper 70s, below record highs.

The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely
occur Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning before becoming
more scattered. Instability looks fairly impressive (1000 to 2000
J/KG) on Monday afternoon. However, 0-6 km shear looks weak, but may
be just enough for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorm
activity. Luckily, wet-bulb zero heights are above 10,000 and
helicity is very weak in guidance right not, so the main threats
would be frequent lightning and straight line wind damage is any
severe storms did occur. However, confidence is low at this time in
severe development given weak shear and the lack of helicity in
place. This activity should weaken quickly and reduce its coverage
quickly after sunset with the loss of instability. Lows will be a bit
warmer likely, only dropping into the lower 60s primarily.

Models are disagreement on where the frontal boundary ends up
Tuesday into Thursday. Either way, a new surface low develops over
northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado by Tuesday afternoon.
The surface high over the southeast continues to be an impediment to
the surface low and upper level energy moving move to the southeast
versus northeast into Wednesday. This should keep low to medium
chances of showers or thunderstorms in the area, mainly north of the
Tennessee River through then. Warmer temperatures are expected, with
some possible breaks in cloud cover at times on Tuesday afternoon.
Highs as a result may reach 80 degrees on Tuesday.

Continued warming is expected into Wednesday as the primary surface
low moves east northeast as the front stretching from central Texas
into the Ohio Valley. Highs with maybe some breaks in cloud cover at
times (though primarily mostly cloudy) could hit the lower 80s.

Rain and thunderstorms chances will likely increase sometime later in
the afternoon hours on Wednesday into Thursday, as a stronger
frontal boundary extending southwest from the surface low exiting the
northeast states pushes further southeast into the Tennessee Valley.
Stronger forcing and shear looks to setup ahead of this frontal
boundary and could spell a more organized severe and heavy rainfall
threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

At least BKN CIGS around 5000 feet are expected between 00Z and 2Z
at both terminals. A PROB30 for -TSRA directly affect each
terminal was added (KMSL from 00Z to 01Z and KHSV from 00Z to
03Z). Expect predominant MVFR CIGS to develop around 8Z at KMSL
and 9Z at KHSV. As a cold front moves into the terminals after
18Z, a tempo group for -TSRA was included.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW